这份报告主要分析了整个澳大利亚市场的销售情况和杰克的酒窖公司的销售情况，为该公司做预测。有关这些分析的数据来自于该公司和ABS网站。预测是由温特斯指数平滑法、分解法、自回归模型和ARIMA季节。季节ARIMA是最好的在所有这些方法。我们建立了季节性ARIMA模型ARIMA（0,0,1）（1, 0, 1）4for葡萄酒和有马（2,1,2）（0,1,1）4白兰地。根据季节ARIMA模型，我们得到了2013的预测。结果表明，7.5%的增长是不可能的，但仍有一些事情可以做，以提高增长率。由于消费者行为对销售至关重要，因此公司可以根据消费者的参与类型，将市场分成两部分，然后对不同类型的市场进行适当的定价。
This report mainly analyzes the whole Australian markets’ sales and Jack’s Cellar Pty’s sales to do forecasting for the company. Data about these analysis is from this company and the abs website. Theforecasting is done by the methods of Winters Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, Autoregressive models and seasonal ARIMA.The seasonal ARIMA goes best in all these methods. We construct Seasonal ARIMA model as ARIMA (0,0,1) (1, 0, 1 )4for wine and ARIMA（2,1,2）（0,1,1）4 for brandy. Depending on the seasonal ARIMA model, we get the prediction for 2013. The results show that it is impossible for a growth of 7.5%, but some thing still can be done to increase the growth rate. Since the consumer behavior is important to the sales, so the company can try to divide the markets into two parts depend on the type of involvement of consumers and then do proper pricing policy to different type of markets.
Australia’s wine industry begins early. It was 1788 when the first vineyard was planted in. since then, this agricultural kept developing successful, which achieve to employs 30 000 Australians (ABS Census data) and contributes $5.5 billion to the nation's economy. Many commercial institutes feed on this industry. As the development of Australia’s wine industry goes on, it begins to expend to other part of the world. The scale of this industry makes Australia a wine export leader. The alcoholic beverages industry has undergone substantial changes in the last three decades. More clearly to say, the wine industry is undergoing changes because of the economic environment, the policy of governments and some other factors. So it is important to forecast the sales of the total industry and of some companies, or the industry and the companies may goes into depts. Also, in forecasting the sales, it is also convenient to find which things may affect the sales of wine. As the common sense, the wine industry can be affected by many factors. The most important ones can be current regulations, government policies, economic circumstances and its consumers. So the data analysis can also dig out how can these qualitative and quantities factors affects.
Jack’s Cellar Pty, Ltd is a company that sells all types of domestic Wine and Brandy in Australia, so it is important to get some information and forecasting before they do some decisions in these complicated situation. To make the production decisions, they should analysis the whole markets’ sales and their own sales depending on the forecasting models. Also combining the results of data analysis with the qualitative factors such as the current regulations, government policies, economic circumstances and its consumers is as well as irreplaceable and determinative to the decision.
The Australia wine industry is the leader of the world. But in the last three decades, it has undergone substantial changes because of the economic environment, the policy of governments and some other factors. So it is important to forecast the sales of the total industry and of some companies, or the industry and the companies may goes into depts. Jack’s Cellar Pty, Ltd is a company that sells all types of domestic Wine and Brandy in Australia, so it is important to get some information and forecasting before they do some decisions in these complicated situation.