澳洲Essay 代写:个人决策模型

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  • 澳洲Essay 代写:个人决策模型

    我在一家中国化学公司C公司做兼职翻译。当时,C公司决定从其他公司购买一些机器;在信息研究之后,它有两种选择。第一个选项是A公司,来自欧洲的一家不错的公司,没有在中国的制造基地和办事处。第二选项B公司在中国建立合资企业,在中国生产基地和双语专业工程师。A公司的技术比B公司更好一点,和C公司最终选择了A公司然后公司派出的专家从欧洲来指导现场安装和调试,以及C公司录用我为解释。然而,由于零部件的质量问题,C公司派出了更多的工程师从欧洲修理和送回一些组件到欧洲的工厂。由于零部件短缺导致零部件暂时停产,公司C不能向承包商交付产品,造成巨大的经济损失。本报告的目的是分析公司C的决策过程,以及基于理论的改进决策方式。
    2分析决策过程
    在这一部分,根据六种理论,对C公司的决策过程进行分析。首先,这个决策是基于有限理性模型,决策者承认有限制条件对决策有影响。决策者不追求最佳结果,而是试图寻找足够好的东西。事实上,没有完美的意见;如果存在第二个最佳选择,决策者可以选择它。在我们的例子中,最好的公司可以选择在理论上应该是一个在中国伟大的技术和生产基地的公司。然而,根据C公司的市场调查,这种理想的公司并不存在。事实上,A公司有更好的技术,能够比B公司B公司在中国也拥有生产基地,产品纯度更高,和维修成本是低于欧洲的公司。此外,B公司拥有中国专业人员,C公司不需要支付额外的口译费用。公司,相反,有了更好的技术,在中国没有生产基地。决策者最终选择了A公司,因为决策者更多地关注产品的纯度。其次,对企业进行风险分析,发现企业面临决策风险。在我们的案例中,C公司的决策者在决策过程中非常注重产品的纯度。在市场上,单纯的产品供给小于需求;有在中国能做出这样的纯产品的几家公司。纯品的价格在市场上相当高,利润相当大。决策者认为选择A公司具有较高的预期收益,不考虑维修成本风险。C公司认为未来将需要修复的部件很少。决策者的想法是,回报足以弥补风险。然而,事实是车厢有很大的问题,其中许多需要运回欧洲修理。虽然公司同意支付运输费用并免费修理,但由于C公司因车厢问题造成停产,未能按要求向公司索赔,C公司未能按合同规定交货。
    第三,决策是在8步决策模型的基础上进行的,是一个系统的决策过程。在第一步中,决策者确定所要解决的问题,买机器的使高纯产品即一个公司的选择。第二步,制定本决定的标准,包括合作的质量、技术和价格。在第三步中,决策者考虑标准的重要性,认为最重要的是质量。在第四步中,决策者搜索信息,并列出符合这些标准的公司。在第五步中,决策者分析这些候选公司,并根据收集到的信息进行比较。在第六步中,决策者对A公司做了最后的选择,认为A公司比其他公司更好。在第七步,决策者执行这一决定,并在第八和最后一步与A公司签署合同,决策者在损失后评估这个决定,并认为这是不恰当的。
    第四,这是一个非程序化的决定,因为新机器对于F是非常重要的。

    澳洲Essay 代写:个人决策模型

    I worked as a part-time interpreter in a Company C, a Chinese chemistry company. At that time, Company C decided to buy some machines from other companies; after information research, it had two options. The first option was Company A, a good company from Europe, without manufacturing base and representative office in China. The second option was Company B, a joint venture established in China, with manufacturing bases and bilingual professional engineers in China. The technology of Company A was a little better than that of Company B, and Company C’s finial choice was Company A. Then Company A sent the experts from Europe to guide the installation and commissioning on site, and Company C hired me for interpretation. However, due to big quality problems of the components, Company C sent more engineers from Europe to repair and sent back some components to the plant in Europe. The component problems resulted in the temporary production halt due to few spares; Company C could not deliver products to contractors, causing great economic loss. The purpose of this report is to analyze the decision making process of Company C and the way such decisions could have been improved based on theories. 
    2.0 Analysis of decision making process 
    In this part, the decision making process of Company C will be analyzed in accordance with six theories. First of all, this decision is made based on the bounded rational model, and the decision maker admits there are restricted conditions with impact on the decision. The decision maker does not pursue the optimal result, but tries to look for something good enough. In reality, there is no perfect opinion; if the second-best option exists, the decision maker can select it. In our case, the best company to be selected in theory should be a company with great technology and production base in China. However, according to the market research made by Company C, this kind of ideal company does not exist. In fact, Company A, with better technology, is able to make products with greater purity than Company B. But Company B has its own production bases in China, and the repair costs is be lower than that of Company A in Europe. Besides, Company B has Chinese professionals, and Company C does not need to pay additional interpretation expense for communication. Company A, on the contrary, has better technology and has no production base in China. The decision maker finally selects Company A after comparison because the decision maker concerns more about product purity.  Secondly, the risk analysis is carried out, for a company always faces risks in decision making. In our case, during the decision-making process, the decision maker of Company C pays a lot of attention to the purity of products. In the market, the supply of pure products is less than the demand; there are few companies in China which can make such pure products. The price of pure products is quite high in the market, and the profit is pretty large. The decision maker deems that choosing Company A will have higher expected return, and does not consider carefully about risks of repair cost. Company C optimally thinks that there will be few components which need to be repaired in the future. The idea of the decision maker is that the return can be sufficient enough to offset the risk. However, the truth is there are big problems of the compartments, and many of them need to be transported back to Europe to repair. Although Company Agrees to pay for the transportation fees and repair them for free, the great loss has been caused for Company C. Company C fails to deliver products according to contracts due to the production halt caused by compartment problems, and makes compensations to the demand companies. 
    Thirdly, the decision is made on the basis of 8 step decision making model, and it is a systematic decision making. In the first step, the decision maker identified the problem to be solved, i.e. selection of a company to buy machines to make purer products. In the second step, the criteria of this decision are created, including the quality, the technology and the price of the company to be cooperated. In the third step, the decision maker considers the importance of the criteria, thinking the most important one is quality. In the fourth step, the decision maker searches information, and makes a list of the companies which are in line with these criteria. In the fifth step, the decision maker analyzes these candidate companies and makes comparison based on the information collected. In the sixth step, the decision maker makes the final choice for Company A, believing that Company A is relatively better than others. In the seventh step, the decision maker executes this decision, and signs a contract with Company A. In the eighth and last step, the decision maker evaluates this decision after loss, and thinks it is not proper. 
    Fourthly, this is a non-programmed decision, because the new machines are very important for the further development of Company C. With these high-tech machines, Company C is able to produce purer chemical products, attract more clients and make more profits. In addition, this decision is not routine, and the decision making will not occur again. The reason is that Company C does not normally make such choice, and will not make the same decision in the future. Furthermore, this decision is made after long-time consideration; Company C takes several months to do so.