代写 ETF5952 QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR RISK ANALYSIS
ETF5952 QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR RISK ANALYSIS
Semester 1, 2016
This assignment comprises 10% of the assessment for ETF5952.
You must submit a printed
“hard copy” of your written work - with an Assignment Cover Sheet (from the “ASSIGNMENTS” section of Moodle). Submit it in your tutorial before the due time, or submit it to your tutor’s mailbox, 5th
floor H Block, by 6pm on Thursday 24March 2016. (This is different from the due date shown in the Unit Guide.) For each day that it is late, 10% of Assignment’s allocated marks will be deducted.
ENSURE that you
· submit a printed “hard copy” of your assignment to your tutor.
· Name your assignment: Surname-Initials_A1.docx, eg, Rowling-JK_A1.docx.
· Upload this file to Moodle (to prove that it was submitted, and that it was on time).
Go to the “ASSIGNMENTS” section. Click on the “ASSIGNMENT 1” link to upload.
The following message will appear momentarily, “File uploaded successfully.”
[To later confirm your upload was successful, go to the “ASSIGNMENTS” section and click
on the “Assignment 1” uploading link. The uploaded file’s name willbe shown.]
NB, DO NOT submit any Excel files. You may upload only ONE file.
* Retain your marked assignment until after the publication of final results for this unit.
This is an individual, NOT a syndicate, assignment. On the Assignment Cover Sheet, read the
references to plagiarism and collusion fromUniversity Statute 4.1. Part III – Academic Misconduct.
· Check your work to ensure that
o you have completed all tasks and have answered the questions which have been asked. If you are asked to “explain” an answer, then realise that, often, more marks are awarded for the explanation than are awarded for merely stating a result.
o you are succinct and to the point. Marks are awarded for correctness and completeness, not for the amount written.
o you have followed any prescribed templates for reporting.
o any StatTools
/Excel output has the format and presentationthat you require
o any StatTools
/Excel output is sensible and “user-friendly”.For example, if StatTools
/Excel provided 8 decimal places, is it necessary to display 8 decimal places?
o graphs, tables, etc are appropriately and informatively labelled, with chart titles, axis titles, legends, units of measure, etc – as appropriate. Furthermore, if the markers and lines in your graphs are so big/thick that the underlying information cannot be seen, then the graphs are useless. Ensure that your graphs are “reader-friendly”.
· Do not submit your assignment in a folder – stapled pages are easier for the marker.
· Save trees!
Double-sided printing is encouraged.
· In business, a high standard of presentation is usually required. In this unit, your submitted work is expected to be legible, to be well laid out and to reveal use of a spelling checker. However, we are more interested in correct content than in your abilities in desk-top publishing. For example,
o if you’re having trouble pasting graphs or tables in your document, just print them separately and include them as appendices (appropriately labelled).
o if you lack the Excel skills to construct the graph or table that you want, then do the task “by hand”.
o we would rather see a hand-written alteration than an error.
This assignment is based on unit material (lectures and tutorials; reading and Problems from AWZ_4e; etc). We expect that students who have revised the material beforedoing the assignment will obtain more marks than those who have not done so.
Each semester, Monash asks students to evaluate units that they have studied. Recently, some ETF5952 students commentedthat they didn’t understand the questions in tutorials and assignments and that they thought the questions were not relevant to the unit’s content. So, for this semester, if you have any of these concerns,please
· ask a staff member to clarify the questions for you. A staff consultation roster is on Moodle.
· study the unit’s content priorto
attempting the tutorial and assignment questions. This should enhance your ability to understand the questions and to see their relevance to the unit.
Intentional plagiarism amounts to cheating in terms of University Statute 4.1. Part III – Academic Misconduct.
: Plagiarism means to take and use another person’s ideas and or manner of expressing them and to pass these off as one’s own by failing to give appropriate acknowledgement. This includes material from any source, staff, students or the Internet – published and unpublished works.
: Collusion is unauthorised collaboration with another person or persons.
Where there are reasonable grounds for believing that intentional plagiarism or collusion has occurred, this
will be reported to the Chief Examiner, who may disallow the work concerned by prohibiting assessment or
refer the matter to the Faculty Manager.
Total marks: 8 + 18 + 12 + 20 = 58
QUESTION 1 [8 marks]
QUESTION 2 [18 marks]
Critically explain and discuss the use of statistical concepts and statistical
language in this item from the THE AGE newspaper.
Make reference to the following.
(a) Which variable(s) are mentioned from this survey of Australian men?
(b) For each variable that you identify, explain whether it is nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio.For each variable, explain whether it is discrete or continuous.
(c) Which summary measure(s) were used? Explain your answer.
(d) Were the summary measure(s) used appropriately? Explain.
(e) What is conveyed in this item, or is intended to be conveyed? Discuss. Explain whether what is conveyed is informative.
State other relevant points (if any) about the information (intended to be) conveyed by this item.
produces metal rods. One of their manufacturing machines produces 100 “1-inch” rods per day. A “1-inch” rod is considered acceptable if it is at least 1.0 inches in diameter.
The file Rodco.xlsx
contains the measured diameters (in inches), in order of production, of 500 rods produced by this machine in 5 consecutive days.
Column A: The rods are numbered sequentially over the 5 days, from 1 to 500.
Column B: 1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday, …, 5 = Friday.
Column C: The rods are numbered sequentially over each day, from 1 to 100.
Column D: Rod diameter in inches.
Use appropriate tools of Descriptive Statistics (Weeks 1-3 of our syllabus) to analyse and report on the diameters of these 500 rods. (Imagine that you are reporting to a statistical audience with the knowledge level of your classmates in this unit.)
All of your responses may be brief and presented as bullet points. There is no need for long essays. Any tables or graphs must be appropriately and informatively labelled.
QUESTION 3 [6 + 6 = 12 marks]
Dupree Fuels Company sells heating oil to residential customers. A random sample of 40 of their
customers yielded the data in the fileDupree.xlsx
Read the case study on p665 of AWZ_4. NOTE THAT YOU ARE NOT BEING ASKED TO PERFORM THE REGRESSION ANALYSIS REQUESTED ON p665
Instead, you mustaddress the following questions.
(a) The data file Dupree.xlsx
(described on p665 of AWZ_4) contains 5 variables: OilUsage (in gallons) and 4 others.
· On the basis of your intuition
(NOT analysing the data at this stage), to which of the other 4 variables do you expect OilUsage to be related?
· Related positively or negatively?
Justify your answers.
(b) (i) Using StatTools (or otherwise), obtain a table of correlations (not covariances) for the 5
variables of Dupree.xlsx
(ii) From the table of correlations, select the variable which is most strongly related to
OilUsage and obtain a scatterplot of OilUsage versus this variable.
(iii) What information is this scatterplot, with its associated correlation coefficient,
providing about the relationship between the two variables?
QUESTION 4 [10 + 10 = 20 marks]
The following item is an edited excerpt from an article in THE AGE newspaper. The article was
prepared by the REIV (Real Estate Institute of Victoria). It compares residential property prices in
Melbourne suburbs in the June quarter of 2010 with prices in the September quarter of 2010.
What do we mean by median?
... In some suburbs, the median price increased and, in others, it decreased. But, to understand what
the results mean, it is important to understand what a median is.
The median is not the average. The median value is the middle price in a series of sales, where half of
the sales are of lower value and half are of higher value. For example, if 15 sales are recorded in a
suburb and arranged in order from lowest to highest value, the eighth sale price is the median price.
Median prices are used rather than average prices because median prices are unaffected by a few
unusually high or low prices, making them more accurate. ...
(a) Critically explain and discuss the use of statistical concepts and statistical language in theitem above
. Make reference to the following.
(i) Which variable(s) were mentioned?
(ii) For each variable that you identify, explain
whether it is nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio; discrete or continuous.
(iii) What did the writer mean by “average”: mode, median, mean? Explain your answer.
(iv) Other relevant points (if any).
(b) Consider a suburb (call it Brunswood) which had a 10% rise in median price from the June
quarter to the September quarter of 2010.
(i) What do we know about the change in the maximum sale price for Brunswood
over this period? Explain your answer.
, on the same pair of axes, a graph for the June quarter prices and a graph
for the September quarter prices. Label your axes.
§ your choice of graph type.
§ how your graphs illustrate the 10% rise in median price over the period.
FEEDBACK FOR THIS ASSIGNMENT
will be provided
· by the detailed solutions on Moodle.
· by tutors indicating areas on the submitted work where mistakes have been made and referring students to consult the solutionson Moodle.
If you still have difficulties, then you should consult a staff member.
(See the “STAFF and CONSULTATION” section on Moodle.)
· When tasks are undertaken in StatTools
, unseen tables or worksheets are created in the background. For example,when a graph is created, the underlying coordinates of the points being plotted may be stored in an unseen worksheet.
So, if you are using both StatTools
(eg, Pivot Tables) on a set of data, occasionally some of these background items may conflict and prevent you from performing your task. If this occurs, use a fresh copy of your data file for the failed tasks.
· If StatTools
gives an error when you attempt to place output in the “Active Sheet”, just place the output in a “New Worksheet in Active Workbook”.
· A cell with a red triangle in the upper right-hand corner contains a comment. The comment may be read by hovering the cursor over that cell.
To Copy a selected part of your spreadsheet andPaste it into a Word document
· Select the required cells and click on the “Copy” icon.
· Go to Microsoft Word and Paste the selection by clicking on the downwards triangle of the Paste icon. Select Paste Special
An alternative to the procedures above is to press the “Print Scrn” key when your spreadsheet is on display. This captures an image of your screen, which you may then Paste into a Word document. Use Microsoft Word’s “Crop” tool to reduce the image to your desired selection.
To alter the page margins, in order to optimise the use of a page before printing it
· Select /Page Layout/Margins
at the top of the screen (Excel or Word).
To print in “Landscape” view,rather than in “Portrait” view
· Select Page Layout/Orientation/Landscape
To print the gridlines which border the cellsof a spreadsheet
· From the top of the screen, select Page Layout/Sheet Options/Gridlines/Print
To print the Row (“1”, “2”, “3”, etc) and Column (“A”, “B”, “C”, etc) headings
· From the top of the screen, select Page Layout/Sheet Options/Headings/Print
When you print all, or part, of your spreadsheet, Row and Column headings will be printed.
If you are unable to make Excel display the Row and Column headings clearly on your printout, then write them on by hand.
To sort a data set
For example, to sort by Salary
the data in Questionnaire Data.xlsx
(Week 1 lecture),
· select the cells of the entire data set (A1:G31) and click on “Data” at the top of the screen.
· Under “Sort & Filter”, select “Sort”.
· In the Sort dialogue box, ensure that you tick “My data has h
· In the “Sort by” drop down menu, select Salary.
The entire data set (not just the Salary
column) will now be sorted by Salary
To capture a screen image & “Paste” it into Word
To capture the image (any image, eg, an Excel page, an internet page, a photo, etc) currently displayed on your screen,
· press the Print Scrn
button on your keyboard.
· go to the desired location in your Word
document. Hold the Ctrl
key and press the letter “V”.
The “Snipping Tool” (available via START button/Programs/Accessories in many Windows versions) is very useful too.
To copy a table or graph from Excel& “Paste” it as an image into Word
· Select, then “Copy” the table or graph in Excel.
· Go to the desired location in your Word
document. From the top of the screen, select “Paste”, “Paste Special”, then “Picture (Enhanced Metafile”).
To trim (“Crop”) an image in Word
· Select View/Toolbars/Picture and click on the “Crop” icon:
· Apply the “Crop” icon to the image.
To arrange graphs and pictures within a “Word” document
Graphs (eg, from Excel) and pictures can be more manageable if you insert a table into Word
and place your graphs and pictures (and text) into cells of the table.
You should know these key words which appear in assignment and exam questions.
Identify characteristics or qualities that resemble each other. Emphasise similarities and also mention differences where appropriate. For example, the comparison of fundamental and technical analysis; you should define what is meant by each concept before undertaking the comparison.
Stress the dissimilarities and differences of things, events, problems or qualities.
Express your judgement about the merit or truth of the factors or views mentioned. Draw conclusions, discussing their limitations and good points. eg, “critically appraise …”
State concise, clear and authoritative meanings. Give the limits of the definition, but omit detailed explanations. Show how the item defined differs from items in other classes.
Recount, characterise, outline or relate in sequence. Emphasise the most important points. You are not required to explain or interpret.
A drawing, chart, plan or graph. Diagrams should be labelled and there should be an accompanying explanation.
Examine, analyse carefully, and give reasons for and against. Be complete, and give details.
Provide an itemised list, which may often be expressed in point form.
You are required to appraise in order to make a judgement. This means you should carefully appraise the problems, referring to advantages, limitations, costs and benefits as appropriate.
Clarify, interpret and elaborate on the material presented. Give reasons for differences of opinion or results, and try to analyse causes. Your focus is on the how and why of a particular issue. [It is not sufficient to merely state a result.]
Use a concrete example, diagram or figure to explain or clarify a problem.
Explain or tell themeaningof, present in understandable terms. [Limit the use of jargon or symbols.]
Prove or give reasons for conclusions or decisions.
Organise a description under main points and subordinate points. Omit minor details. Stress the arrangement or classification of things.
Examine a subject critically, analysing and commenting on the important statements.
Present the main points in brief, clear sequence, usually omitting details or examples.
Give the main points or facts in condensed form. Use a chronological or systematic format.